sentix ASR Essentials 37-2014

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 05 October 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

Bunds sentiment supported by macro views

The latest sentix survey underlines the rising tide of optimism towards eurozone bonds, both in the near-term and on a medium-term strategic viewpoint. Such optimism may reflect expectations that the ECB could move into the market to purchase government bonds. However, it is also consistent with investors' views (as expressed when answering monthly questions on investment themes) that the inflation and economic backdrop continues to become more bond-bullish on a six month view (see Charts 2/3, page 2). That said, while the tide of optimism is rising, the survey also suggests that medium-term 'neutrality' levels on bunds are also becoming elevated. A degree of uncertainty on bunds remains beneath the sentiment surface.

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sentix ASR Essentials 36-2014

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 28 September 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

High uncertainty on Equities even as sentiment revives

While sentix survey respondents remain highly pessimistic on the Euro, there are signs that optimism is returning in terms of the medium-term outlook for Eurozone bonds and equities (see Charts 6 & 9, pages 3 & 4). In the case of equities, the revival in medium-term sentiment readings on the likes of the DAX and EuroSTOXX indices has occurred despite heightened pessimism over the near-term outlook. It may be that investors have begun to see value in equities after their summer setbacks. However, the improved tone of sentiment has also been set against a reduced level of over-investment in equities, based on the monthly survey questions on investor positioning. Equity sentiment on the medium-term is improving, but uncertainties have not gone away, as indicated by positioning and elevated 'neutrality' levels (see Chart 7, page 3).

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sentix ASR Essentials 35-2014

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 21 September 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

High-optimism on Healthcare constrasts with caution Cyclicals

The latest sentix survey suggests that investors' views on sectors remain caught in the grip of uncertainty about the macro outlook. Questions on participants' opinions about the medium-term outlook for European sectors relative to the market revealed that they remain deeply pessimistic on sectors such as Basic Resources, Autos and Industrials. On the other side of the sentiment divide, investors remain especially optimistic on the medium-term outlook for Healthcare (see Charts 2 & 3, page 2). Sector sentiment appears to remain set on a more Defensive sector tack relative to Cyclicals.

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sentix ASR Essentials 34-2014

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Written by Manfred Hübner | 14 September 2014
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Mind the sentiment gap between Emerging Markets & Commodities

The latest sentix survey throws up an interesting divergence in opinion on the Emerging Markets (EMs) and Commodities. While the tide of optimism continues to rise in the case of markets such as China, sentiment has turned sharply negative on Commodities such as Crude and Gold (see Charts 2-4 on Page 2). This appears odd given sentiment towards both asset classes has historically had a reasonably close relationship. The extent of the current sentiment gap between EMs and Commodities suggests the relationship may be beginning to break down.

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sentix ASR Essentials 33-2014

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Written by Patrick Hussy | 07 September 2014
Posted in sentix Weekly

ECB moves further undermine Euro sentiment

The latest Sentix survey provides a timely view of investor sentiment following last week's ECB policy moves. Initially, at least, they have been taken well by equity markets, with both near and medium-term sentiment readings for the EuroSTOXX also continuing to edge higher (see Page 3). In the case of Eurozone bonds, investors appear more equivocal on the medium-term outlook, though they view economic developments as becoming more bond-supportive (Chart 2, page 2). On the other side of the sentiment divide, however, survey participants have become even more downbeat on the outlook for the single currency. Pessimism on the nearterm prospects for Euro versus USD has returned to historic lows, while pessimism on the medium-term remains in the ascendancy (Charts 3 and 4, page 2).

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